DOI – https://doi.org/10.46793/Vodoprivreda57.1-2.45D
Ključne reči – klimatske promene, ekstremne dnevne padavine, ekstremne časovne padavine, mapiranje kvantila, Digitalni atlas klime Srbije, ERA5 reanaliza
REZIME
Klimatske promene menjaju atmosferske uslove koji generišu ekstremne padavine, što direktno utiče na pouzdanost brojnih hidroloških analiza. U ovom radu analizirane su projekcije promena 10- i 100-godišnjih kvantila ekstremnih dnevnih i kratkotrajnih padavina za sliv reke Toplice do 2100. godine. Procene su zasnovane na projekcijama maksimalnih godišnjih dnevnih padavina iz ansambla klimatskih modela u Digitalnom atlasu klime Srbije, koje su dovedene u vezu sa maksimalnim dnevnim i kratkotrajnim padavinama iz ERA5 reanalize. Ocenjeni kvantili ekstremnih dnevnih i ekstremnih kratkotrajnih padavina dobijeni iz nizova formiranih na osnovu modela za vremensko razlaganje dnevnih padavina tehnikom mapiranja kvantila, korigovani su u postupku naknadne obrade prema osmotrenim podacima sa meteorološke stanice Kuršumlija. Rezultati ukazuju na prostorno neujednačene, ali pozitivne promene kvantila. Najveći porast 100-godišnjih kvantila ekstremnih kratkotrajnih padavina je u nizijskim oblastima (i do 58%) u odnosu na referentni period 1971–2000. godine. Promene u ostalim delovima sliva uglavnom su manje izražene, osim u zapadnom delu, na padinama Kopaonika.
Autori: Nikola ĐOKIĆ, Borislava BLAGOJEVIĆ, Vladislava MIHAILOVIĆ
LITERATURA
[1] Tabari, H.: Climate change impact on flood and extreme precipitation increases with water availability. Scientific reports, 10(1), 13768, 2020.
[2] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental. Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, 2021.
[3] Martinkova, M., & Kysely, J.: Overview of observed Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of extreme precipitation in mid-latitudes. Atmosphere, 11(8), 786, 2020.
[4] Tošić, I., da Silva, A. S. A., Filipović, L., Tošić, M., Lazić, I., Putniković, S., … & Djurdjević, V.: Trends of Extreme Precipitation Events in Serbia Under the Global Warming. Atmosphere, 16(4), 436, 2025.
[5] Azzopardi, B., Balzan, M. V., Cherif, S., Doblas-Miranda, E., dos Santos, M., Dobrinski, P., … & Xoplaki, E.: Climate and environmental change in the Mediterranean basin–current situation and risks for the future. First Mediterranean assessment report., 2020.
[6] Coppola, E., Giorgi, F., Raffaele, F., Fuentes-Franco, R., Giuliani, G., LLopart-Pereira, M., … & Torma, C.: Present and future climatologies in the phase I CREMA experiment. Climatic change, 125(1), 23-38, 2014.
[7] Change, R. E.: EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. CORDEX initiative, 2020.
[8] Lenderink, G., & Van Meijgaard, E.: Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes. Nature Geoscience, 1(8), 511-514, 2008.
[9] Murphy, T. R., Hanley, M. E., Ellis, J. S., & Lunt, P. H.: Deviation between projected and observed precipitation trends greater with altitude. Climate Research, 79(1), 77-89, 2019.
[10] Napoli, A., Crespi, A., Ragone, F., Maugeri, M., & Pasquero, C.: Variability of orographic enhancement of precipitation in the Alpine region. Scientific reports, 9(1), 13352, 2019.
[11] Jin, Z.; Yu, J.; Dai, K.: Topographic Elevation’s Impact on Local Climate and Extreme Rainfall: A Case Study of Zhengzhou, Henan. Atmosphere 15, 234, 2024.
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15020234
[12] Du, H.; Xia, J.; Yan, Y.; Lu, Y.; Li, J. Spatiotemporal Variations of Extreme Precipitation in Wuling Mountain Area (China) and Their Connection to Potential Driving Factors. Sustainability, 14, 8312, 2022.
https://doi.org/10.3390/su14148312
[13] Kourtis I. M., Tsihrintzis V. A. & Baltas E.: A robust approach for comparing conventional and sustainable flood mitigation measures in urban basins. J. Environ. Manage. 269, 2020.
[14] Mimikou, M. A., Baltas, E. A., & Tsihrintzis, V. A.: Hydrology and water resource systems analysis. CRC Press, 2016.
[15] Mailhot, A., Duchesne, S., Caya, D., & Talbot, G.: Assessment of future change in intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves for Southern Quebec using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). Journal of hydrology, 347(1-2), 197-210., 2007.
[16] Agilan, V., & Umamahesh, N. V.: Is the covariate based non-stationary rainfall IDF curve capable of encompassing future rainfall changes?. Journal of Hydrology, 541, 1441-1455, 2016.
[17] Ren, Zhihui, et al.: Temporal scaling characteristics of sub‐daily precipitation in Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau. Earth’s Future 12.3: e2024EF004417, 2024.
[18] Piani, C., Weedon, G. P., & Best, M.: Statistical bias correction for daily precipitation in regional climate models over Europe. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 102(1-2), 187–199, 2010.
[19] Themessl, M. J., Gobiet, A., & Leuprecht, A.: Empirical‐statistical downscaling and error correction of daily precipitation from regional climate models. International Journal of Climatology, 31(10), 1530-1544, 2011.
[20] Gudmundsson, L., Bremnes, J. B., Haugen, J. E., & Engen-Skaugen, T.: Technical Note: Downscaling RCM precipitation to the station scale using statistical methods. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16(9), 3383–3391, 2012.
[21] Koutsoyiannis, C., Onof, C., Christofides, A., & Kundzewicz, Z. W.: Revisiting causality using stochastics: 1. Theory. Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 477(2261), 20210835, 2021.
[22] Ministarstvo zaštite životne sredine: Digitalni atlas klime i klimatskih promena Republike Srbije. Projekat „Unapređenje srednjoročnog i dugoročnog planiranja mera prilagođavanja na izmenjene klimatske uslove u republici Srbiji“, https://atlas-klime.eko.gov.rs, 2022.
[23] Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present. Climate Data Store (CDS). https: //doi.org /10.24381 /cds.adbb2d47. 2023.
[24] European Space Agency: Copernicus Global Digital Elevation Model. Distributed by OpenTopography. https: //doi.org / 10.5069 / G9028PQB. Accessed 2025-11-17, 2024.
[25] U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Hydrologic Engineering Center. HEC-HMS User’s Manual (v 4.11), 2022.
[26] Gocić, M., Bursać, N. M., & Radivojević, A.: Statistical analysis of annual water discharge of Jablanica and Toplica rivers. Serbian Journal of Geosciences, 2, 2016.
[27] Republički hidrometeorološki zavod Srbije. Časovni podaci o padavinama — MS Kuršumlija (ustupljeni podaci), 2025.
[28] Bandhauer, M., Isotta, F., Lakatos, M., Lussana, C., Båserud, L., Izsák, B., … & Frei, C.: Evaluation of daily precipitation analyses in E-OBS (v19. 0e) and ERA5 by comparison to regional high-resolution datasets in European regions. Int. J. Climatol, 42(2), 727-747, 2022.
[29] Tebaldi, C., & Knutti, R.: The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections. Philosophical transactions of the royal society A: mathematical, physical and engineering sciences, 365(1857), 2053-2075, 2007.
[30] Taylor, K. E.: Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram. Journal of geophysical research: atmospheres, 106(D7), 7183-7192, 2001.
[31] Maraun, D.: Bias correction, quantile mapping, and downscaling: Revisiting the inflation issue. Journal of Climate, 26(6), 2137-2143, 2013.
[32] McSweeney, C. F.: Daily rainfall variability at point and areal scales: evaluating simulations of present and future climate (Doctoral dissertation, University of East Anglia), 2007.
[33] U.S. Army Corps of Engineers: HEC-SSP Statistical Software Package (Version 2.3) [Computer software]. Hydrologic Engineering Center. 2021.
[34] Svensson, C.; Jones, D.A.: Review of methods for deriving areal reduction factors. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 3. 232-245, 2010.
[35] He, M., Chen, H., & Yu, R.: Evaluation of warm-season rainfall diurnal variation over the Qilian Mountains in Northwest China in ERA5 reanalysis. Atmosphere, 13(5), 674, 2022.
[36] Alexopoulos, M. J., Müller-Thomy, H., Nistahl, P., Šraj, M., & Bezak, N.: Validation of precipitation reanalysis products for rainfall-runoff modelling in Slovenia. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 27(13), 2559-2578, 2023.
[37] Rodgers, K. B., Lee, S. S., Rosenbloom, N., Timmermann, A., Danabasoglu, G., Deser, C., … & Yeager, S. G.: Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability. Earth System Dynamics, 12(4), 1393-1411, 2021.
