DOI – https://doi.org/10.46793/Vodoprivreda57.1-2.35T
Ključne reči – adaptacija na klimatske promene, automatska kalibracija, HBV-light model, hidrološki potpisi, unutargodišnja raspodela protoka
REZIME
Jedan od najvažnijih zadataka hidrologije jeste pouzdana procena uticaja klimatskih promena na vodne resurse. Ove analize se zasnivaju na klimatskim projekcijama, koje predstavljaju ulazne podatke za hidrološke modele. Uticaj klimatskih promena se kvantifikuje poređenjem budućih vrednosti hidroloških veličina, i njihovih vrednosti u referentnom (istorijskom) periodu. Jedna od najznačajnijih veličina u ovim analizama je unutargodišnja raspodela protoka koja pokazuje sezonske varijacije oticaja na slivu. Iako predstavlja jedan od najznačajnijih hidroloških potpisa, efikasnost modela u reprodukovanju unutargodišnje raspodele protoka se veoma retko razmatra u inženjerskoj praksi. U ovom radu je hidrološki model sliva reke Ribnice kalibrisan prema nekoliko kriterijumskih funkcija, čime je kreirano nekoliko njegovih verzija. Svaka verzija modela je detaljno analizirana sa aspekta mogućnosti da reprodukuje unutargodišnju raspodelu protoka. Rezultati pokazuju velike varijacije u efikasnosti modela, ali i da verzije modela koje su kalibrisane prema kompozitnim kriterijumskim funkcijama imaju najbolje slaganje sa unutargodišnjim raspodelama osmotrenih protoka. Rezultati takođe pokazuju da ni jedan pokazatelj (odnosno, kriterijumska funkcija u kalibraciji modela) ne odražava u potpunosti različite aspekte efikasnosti modela. Stoga je odabir kriterijumske funkcije veoma važan korak u izradi hidrološkog modela, i treba da se rukovodi konačnom namenom modela (eng. fitness for a said purpose, [1]).
Autori: Andrijana TODOROVIĆ, Ivan RADIŠIĆ, Jasna PLAVŠIĆ
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